My money is on a September, post labor day, release.
I mean - when I check for updates on my Icon - it tells me I am already up to date, even though I know it is not. MY PHONE IS LYING TO ME! AHHHHHH!
Also, check the status of the Icon on the website. Currently it says "back order shipped by 9/4". This tells me (and I'm speculating here, no proof) that they will probably get a new shipment of Icons from Microsoft Mobile OY with Cyan/WP8.1 pre-installed which means they will have to have released Cyan update to existing Icon users before then can sell the newer Icons. Can't very well have two versions of the same phone out there, now can you? What would be Verizon's excuse for not providing the update to us when the new batch already has it?
There are already two (or three) versions of the Icon (and probably the 928 and 822) out there. Ones with the WP 8,0 + Black, others with WP 8.1 (and WP 8.1 Update 1) out there.
I was referring to the "official" version for Verizon. I know people have upgraded their Icons using the Developer Preview Program, but that is not the "official" version for Verizon. There is only one "official" version of the Icon on Verizon and that is the Nokia Lumia Icon with Windows Phone 8.0 and Lumia Black firmware. Any added software/firmware added to this version could void your warranty. That is why I stated that I believe that once the new Icons come in on Sept 4th, they most probably will be shipped from Microsoft with Windows Phone 8.1 and Cyan firmware, which means Verizon would have to accept this version on their network before they could sell the newer phones. That means they would have to approve the Cyan update which means they would have to have released it to us as well since there shouldn't be two "official" versions of the same identical phone. What excuse would they give us for not updating our phones, when the new phone is identical and contains the update. Get my point?